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Gambler¡¯s Fallacy
¼º¹ÎÁ¤ °­³²Æ÷½ºÆ® Çлý±âÀÚ | ½ÂÀÎ 2024.06.06 20:19

Gambler’s fallacy is a kind of bias that is the belief that previous instances of an event would influence the random event occurring in the future. A real-life example of this heuristic is that it leads to suboptimal decision-making. If you flip a coin five times and get consecutive heads four times, you are likely to believe that the successive coin would be tails. 

Therefore, Gambler’s fallacy could lead to an effect on institutions and professions that rely on accurate analysis. When they fail to recognize this, unrelated events may be identified as causes when finding an explanation. Gambler’s fallacy occurs because people tend to try to rationalize random events to provide evidence and seem predictable. Hence, it is important to understand this heuristic as finding patterns in independent events and having irrational assumptions based on previous experiences create prejudice hindering rational judgment. This may impact real life where people create stereotypes.  

To avoid the Gambler’s fallacy, people should critically think through the process that leads to an event. This will help individuals realize that past events are irrelevant to current or future ones. Moreover, being aware of the fallacy could assist individuals in thinking through their perception to identify the flaw, and finding a solid counterargument that implicitly counters the faulty thinking process.

 

 

 

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